A list pitchers want to avoid and why C.J. Wilson is a bargain

Most games in a postseason with 5+ walks allowed:

Rk              Player Year #Matching GS   IP HR BB SO
1          C.J. Wilson 2011         3  3 15.2  0 16 13
2           Whit Wyatt 1941         2  2 18.0  1 10 14
3         Jaret Wright 1997         2  2 12.1  2 10 12
4          CC Sabathia 2007         2  2  9.1  2 11  8
5             Art Nehf 1921         2  2 17.0  0 12  3
6          Jack Morris 1992         2  2  9.1  1 10  9
7    Orlando Hernandez 2000         2  2 14.0  3 10 11
8          Tom Glavine 1997         2  2 11.2  0 12  8
9        Steve Carlton 1980         2  2 13.1  0 11 13
10         Paul Abbott 2001         2  1  8.0  3 13  5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Is this a trend or just a small sample size for C.J.? In his 2nd season as a starter (age 30) he increased his strikeout rate while lowering his walk rate and maintaining the highest ground-ball rate on the Rangers staff (49%). He proved over 34 starts in the American League that he is a terrific pitcher. In fact in 2011 his xFIP was lower than that of the following aces:

• Josh Beckett
• Jon Lester
• Michael Pineda

So did he just tire in October? According to pitcher abuse points over at Baseball Prospectus he ranked just 16th in the bigs plus he posted 3.4 K/BB in his last 6 starts of the regular season so we can’t blame Planet Ron Washington for this one.

October was an “outlier“, “buy low” on C.J. Wilson and trust the long term results.