A list pitchers want to avoid and why C.J. Wilson is a bargain

Most games in a postseason with 5+ walks allowed:

Rk              Player Year #Matching GS   IP HR BB SO
1          C.J. Wilson 2011         3  3 15.2  0 16 13
2           Whit Wyatt 1941         2  2 18.0  1 10 14
3         Jaret Wright 1997         2  2 12.1  2 10 12
4          CC Sabathia 2007         2  2  9.1  2 11  8
5             Art Nehf 1921         2  2 17.0  0 12  3
6          Jack Morris 1992         2  2  9.1  1 10  9
7    Orlando Hernandez 2000         2  2 14.0  3 10 11
8          Tom Glavine 1997         2  2 11.2  0 12  8
9        Steve Carlton 1980         2  2 13.1  0 11 13
10         Paul Abbott 2001         2  1  8.0  3 13  5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Is this a trend or just a small sample size for C.J.? In his 2nd season as a starter (age 30) he increased his strikeout rate while lowering his walk rate and maintaining the highest ground-ball rate on the Rangers staff (49%). He proved over 34 starts in the American League that he is a terrific pitcher. In fact in 2011 his xFIP was lower than that of the following aces:

So did he just tire in October? According to pitcher abuse points over at Baseball Prospectus he ranked just 16th in the bigs plus he posted 3.4 K/BB in his last 6 starts of the regular season so we can’t blame Planet Ron Washington for this one.

October was an “outlier“, “buy low” on C.J. Wilson and trust the long term results.

Advertisements

Posted on October 29, 2011, in 2011 playoffs, pitching rants and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: