A history of base stealing through the eyes of Jose Reyes and Davey Lopes

The best SS in MLB 2010-2011:

Rk Player WAR/pos Age PA R H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG Pos Tm
1 Troy Tulowitzki 11.4 25-26 1135 170 310 68 5 57 107 157 20 5 .308 .376 .555 *6 COL
2 Jose Reyes 8.0 27-28 1189 184 340 60 26 18 74 104 69 17 .309 .352 .460 *6 NYM
3 Jhonny Peralta 7.6 28-29 1191 128 294 55 5 36 93 198 1 2 .273 .327 .434 *65/D3 TOT-DET
4 Alexei Ramirez 6.5 28-29 1310 164 330 60 4 33 78 166 20 13 .275 .321 .415 *6/D CHW
5 Yunel Escobar 6.3 27-28 1157 137 276 43 3 15 117 127 9 5 .273 .353 .366 *6/D TOT-TOR
6 Jimmy Rollins 5.4 31-32 1025 135 237 38 5 24 98 91 47 9 .258 .331 .389 *6/D PHI
7 J.J. Hardy 5.4 27-28 942 120 233 46 3 36 59 146 1 1 .269 .314 .453 *6 MIN-BAL
8 Erick Aybar 5.1 26-27 1194 140 290 51 12 15 66 149 52 14 .266 .314 .376 *6/D LAA
9 Cliff Pennington 4.9 26-27 1146 121 263 52 10 14 92 200 43 14 .257 .319 .369 *6 OAK
10 Alex Gonzalez 4.9 33-34 1233 133 285 69 4 38 53 244 3 2 .246 .282 .411 *6 TOT-ATL
11 Asdrubal Cabrera 4.8 24-25 1092 126 270 48 4 28 69 179 23 9 .274 .330 .416 *6/D CLE
12 Elvis Andrus 4.6 21-22 1339 184 320 42 6 5 120 170 69 27 .272 .345 .331 *6/D TEX
13 Stephen Drew 4.6 27-28 987 127 238 54 17 20 92 182 14 9 .269 .339 .436 *6 ARI
14 Hanley Ramirez 4.2 26-27 1004 147 245 44 2 31 108 159 52 20 .278 .361 .438 *6/D FLA
15 Rafael Furcal 4.2 32-33 797 110 192 38 7 16 68 99 31 9 .268 .335 .408 *6 LAD-TOT
16 Clint Barmes 3.9 31-32 927 90 200 48 0 20 73 154 6 3 .240 .309 .370 *6/45 COL-HOU
17 Marco Scutaro 3.8 34-35 1140 151 292 64 1 18 91 107 9 6 .284 .343 .401 *6/4 BOS
18 Brendan Ryan 3.5 28-29 980 101 206 38 6 5 67 147 24 7 .235 .296 .310 *6 STL-SEA
19 Starlin Castro 2.6 20-21 1221 144 346 67 14 13 64 167 32 17 .304 .343 .422 *6 CHC
Rk Player WAR/pos Age PA R H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG Pos Tm

Reyes has the lowest K rate (9%) & 2nd highest BABIP (33%) among SS the last 2 seasons. Total Zone & UZR show him slightly below average at SS but with the bat he is on par with the likes of Justin Upton, Hunter Pence and Billy Butler which is obviously terrific for a 28 year old shortstop.

The big question is how much value will Ozzie Guillen and the Miami Marlins get out of his legs?  In 2010 Reyes was successful in 75% of his base stealing attempts and took the extra base on a batted ball 56% of the time. Last year he improved to 85% of attempted bags and held steady at 53% XBT (both rates above league averages of 72% SB and 40% XBT). Fangraphs tags him with 2 base-running runs the past 2 years combined. This is good but lags far behind speedsters Michael Bourn (7 BsR), Dexter Fowler and Darwin Barney (5 each).

Further, to provide just 1 win via base-running is nearly off the charts. Many of the GOAT wheels haven’t achieved this and most tend to peak at a younger age than Reyes is today (including the new Miami SS himself):

Alex Rodriguez, peak base-running season at age 21 (7 Runs from Base-running, developed by Sean Smith published on Baseball-Reference)

Edgar Renteria, age 22 (7 Runs)

Jose Reyes, 23 (9)

Tim Raines, 23 (14)

Willie Wilson, 23 (18)

Vince Coleman, 24 (17)

Luis Castillo, 24 (7)

Luis Aparicio, 25 (11)

Cesar Cedeno, 25 (9)

Bobby Bonds, 26 (14)

Kenny Lofton, 26 (14)

Omar Moreno, 26 (11)

Derek Jeter, 27 (7)

Chone Figgins, 27 (7)

Rafael Furcal, 27 (8)

Bert Campaneris, 27 (10)

Delino DeShields, 28 (8)

Chuck Knoblauch, 28 (10)

Jimmy Rollins, 29 (9)

Juan Pierre, 29 (7)

Maury Wills, 29 (18)

Rickey Henderson, 29 (17)

Lou Brock, 27, 29 & 34 (9)

Davey Lopes, 30 (14)

Paul Molitor, 31 (7)

Barry Bonds, 31 (7)

Brett Butler, 31 (8)

Ron LeFlore, 32 (13)

Roberto Alomar, 32 (8)

Ozzie Smith, 33 (11)

Best case scenario Reyes takes the path of Molitor, Smith, Lopes and Brock who provided 5 runs from wheels through their late 30’s. Even at this pace Reyes adds 35 total runs over the life of his contract with Miami (through age 35).

The Marlins need more than just a good base-runner and decent SS to make the 7 year, $128m contract worthwhile. In fact Reyes better come up with 150+ runs with the bat to keep the sabermetrically inclined Marlins fans (both of them) happy.

Advertisements

Posted on December 11, 2011, in 1980s stars, contracts, under 25 and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: