Dave Cameron Looks At Steroid Era Data
Dave Cameron at FanGraphs makes a terrific point about actual HR power during the “steroid era”. To quote Cameron:
“If you put forth the current run environment as an example of what baseball looks like without PEDs, please understand that you are arguing that PEDs caused hitters to be able to make contact more often, not hit the ball over the wall more often when they did make contact.”
His chart is very informative since it actually uses data instead of wild guesses about what happened in baseball during the 1990s.
A few additions to add to Cameron’s fine work:
- The HR/PA rate in 2012 was identical to that of 1998 (2.7% each season).
- The year Mark McGwire hit 70 home runs, 1998, 7.8% of fly-balls went over the fence. This number jumped to 8.1% in 2012.