Blog Archives

The Precedent for the Tight AL Cy Young Race

The 2013 American League Cy Young race is very close.  According to FanGraphs WAR here are the top three finishers:

  1. Max Scherzer – 6.4 WAR
  2. Anibal Sanchez – 6.2
  3. Felix Hernandez – 6.0

I realize that Wins Above Replacement is not a be-all end-all but it is a pretty good estimate of value over a long season (in this case ~30 starts each).

Looking back at the history of the AL Cy Young award I found another very tight three-way race.  Back in 1971 the AL leaders in pitching fWAR looked like this:

  1. Vida Blue – 8.7 WAR
  2. Wilbur Wood – 8.6
  3. Mickey Lolich – 8.2

Lolich, the Detroit Tigers ace finished second in the Cy voting.  The 15 (out of 24) voters who didn’t place Lolich first had to overlook his AL leading 25 wins and 308 strikeouts.

Also in 45 games started the lefty averaged 8 1/3 innings pitched per start. Lolich threw an astounding 376 innings in 1971!  This was forty-two more than the second most in the league hurled by Wilbur Wood (who finished third in the voting for Cy).

Like this year any of the three guys in ’71 was a worthy choice although it’s hard to argue against the winner, Vida Blue. The twenty-one year old Oakland Athletic led the AL in K rate (8.6/9 IP), shutouts (8) and WAR!

The voters got the jist of the whole thing four decades before saber-metrics became mainstream.  We’ll find out later today if they’ve still got it.

Jim Leyland’s Rotation of the Century

When it comes to starting pitching there is no team in the 2013 playoffs with a better staff than the Detroit Tigers.  In fact Jim Leyland is sending to the hill the best starting rotation since the great Leo Mazzone/Bobby Cox teams of the 1990’s in Atlanta.

The Tigers have four pitchers with 4+ WAR this season.  Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez have 6 WAR each, Justin Verlander is +5 and Doug Fister has accumulated 4.5 WAR.

The last team with four starters with 4+ WAR is the 1997 Atlanta Braves.  That was the Tom Glavine/Greg Maddux/John Smoltz and Denny Neagle version of the Braves.  Each of those four guys logged 230 innings for Bobby Cox that season.

Back to the Tigers, Rick Porcello is their fifth starter and he has posted 3 WAR over 29 starts.  This is equal to the value provided this season by C.J. Wilson, Ervin Santana and Andy Pettitte.  That is some awesome fifth starter (or long reliever in the playoffs).

To summarize the Detroit Tigers have arguably three number one starters plus a two and a three.  That is a stacked rotation.