Ellsbury v. Choo, Reviewing the Available Data

Two of the best free agents available in this year’s hot stove are outfielders Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo.  Looking at their most recent three seasons will give us a pretty good idea of each players true skill set and performance.

From 2011-13 both Choo and Ellsbury hit a total of 45 home-runs.  Their isolated power (~.160 ISO) and hits/ball in play (~33%) were both nearly identical.  Choo had a grand total of 65 more plate appearances during the last three years.

The differences between the two players offensive performances are walks (big advantage Choo), contact rate (solid advantage Ellsbury) and speed (big advantage Ellsbury).

Looking at attributes outside of batting and base-running, Jacoby Ellsbury is 14 months younger than Choo and thanks to his wheels the former Boston Red Sox all-star has much better range in the outfield.  Shin-Soo Choo possesses a better throwing arm.

That’s 3/4 of the story.  Most of the other quarter is simply unknown to us foreign observers.  Scouts, coaches, teammates and family members need to fill us in.  Of course they tend to be subjective which is why we take their input with a grain of salt.

If we could measure this other 25% that would be terrific.  Aside from in-depth scouting we can’t get too far past 90%.

So if you had $100,000,000 to throw around at an outfielder who do you got?

The Tigers Problem Spot…Fielding

Boston Red Sox fielders were 5th best in the American League at turning batted balls into outs.  The Detroit Tigers defense ranked 10th in the AL.

Total Zone Fielding and Baseball Info Solutions Defensive Runs Saved both concur that Boston is an above average fielding squad while the Tigers pretty much stink.

The Tigers biggest problem spots on defense are in right field (Torii Hunter) and at the infield corners (Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera).  Certainly Boston hitters like Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino and Dustin Pedroia could pile up bloop hits all series long.

Fortunately the Tigers lineup is loaded and their starting rotation is the greatest of the century.  Jim Leyland‘s team may beat the Red Sox and advance to the World Series but it won’t be because of their fielding prowess.